The chancellor is correct. While Brexiters are right to say that Britain needs a credible “outside option” as an alternative to a negotiated deal with the EU27, spending billions ramping up the UK’s customs operation in the hope that disruption could be avoided on March 30 2019 is not the answer.The reasons are simple. Britain could concrete over hectares of Kent building customs posts and lorry parks; the government could invest billions in new customs IT; it could train thousands of staff so they were ready to ensure imported goods comply with new UK regulations and charge value added tax, tariffs and duties; but it would be futile.
The system would still collapse on the first day because customs operations require co-operation between two countries. In an antagonistic “no deal” outcome, where Britain has walked away from our European partners, co-operation is exactly what would be missing. The flow of goods would soon stop. So, spending money or walking away does not put Britain in control. Rather, it cedes control to the EU27 authorities in deciding how much infrastructure they want to build.When playing such a weak hand, bravado convinces nobody. There is zero chance that spending billions would persuade the EU27 to be more flexible in the negotiations. So what would be a more sensible fallback option?
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